It is not an exaggeration to label Newcastle’s relegation fight as the most significant such struggle in the history of the Premier League. If you follow English football, you know that the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia (“PIF”) bought a controlling stake in Newcastle United in October 2021. This comes after months of the PIF searching for the ‘right’ club to purchase. It’s a great choice: Newcastle was regarded as a sleeping giant given an intersection of miserable fortunes on the pitch and a resilient, active fanbase that continues to support the team.
Through the people who killed Jamal Khashoggi PIF, Newcastle immediately became the richest club in the world overnight. The pie chart below is a representation of the wealth of all the Premier League’s owners.
You get the point. The people who killed Jamal Khashoggi PIF are ready to spend, voraciously, to become the next power in English football. It’s a scary thought for other English clubs: Manchester City was previously thought of as the “rich club” that bought its way to prominence.
Look at that pie chart again!
There’s one catch for Newcastle and their fans. The team is awful. It was awful last year, and the year before. In all of these seasons Newcastle has flirted with being relegated to the Championship, the second tier of English football. Now, money has a funny habit of solving problems. But to truly begin turning the club around, the PIF needs the team to survive its relegation battle. Very few high-quality players would join a team in the second tier of a country’s football pyramid. Certainly none would join for the right reasons. If Newcastle is relegated, their plans to become the best team in the world are delayed by at least a year, and in that year, prized transfer targets may turn somewhere else.
Newcastle stinks. They need quality players everywhere. Between injuries and bad players, though, the primary areas in need of reinforcement are the full-backs, centre-backs, and a striker. They need them now, in the January window. Anything less than three signings is a reckless gamble for the club and for the PIF’s investment.
Below are ten names that Newcastle should be trying to recruit. There are loans for good players without playing time at their current clubs, for a multitude of reasons; young recruits that can help now and in the future; and players that are rumored to be happy taking a lot of money to play for England’s second-worst Premier League team (as of writing!) Not included here are Sven Botman (CB, Lille), who has had much media ink spilled over him and looks set to stay due to Lille’s continued participation in the Champion’s League; Diego Carlos (CB, Sevilla), Lloyd Kelly (CB, Bournemouth), and Boubacar Kamara (CDM/CB, Marseille) also fall into the written-about category. Two notes before we get started:
- As always, transfer values are provided by transfermarkt.com
- Pay attention to the different currencies being quoted. Why don’t you put them all in one currency? World soccer media constantly toggles between pounds and Euros. And transfermarkt uses dollars. The sooner you can triangulate the relative value between the three, the better off you’ll be.
We have three questions for every candidate:
WHY? Why should the player and Newcastle think it makes sense?
WHY NOT?Why should Newcastle/the player NOT want to move?
WILL IT HAPPEN? What percentage chance does the player move in January?
The Full-Backs
1. Lucas Digne, LB, Everton (Value: $33MM)
WHY? Digne is good! One of the Premier League’s more distinguished in his position, Digne had a falling out with Rafa Benitez at Everton and is currently frozen out from the squad. Everton, somewhat surprisingly, are backing the under-fire manager over the Frenchman and are content to let him go for €25MM (then again, the Toffees desperately need funds for any new players, given an expensive run of bad recruitment). Newcastle are begging for quality in just about every area position. Digne would offer a high-quality, automatic starter for Steve Bruce.
WHY NOT? Digne is good! That means a couple of things:
- Digne may not relish a relegation battle nor the specter of tearing up the Championship next year;
- Chelsea and now Aston Villa are also in the race for his signature and can offer higher-quality football.
The Saudis Newcastle can take care of the first issue by inserting a release clause lower than his purchase price, to be triggered if the club is relegated. There’s a case to be made against Chelsea. The Blues are only in market due to Ben Chilwell’s ACL tear and he will likely resume his place in the first XI when he returns. More pressingly, Aston Villa are reportedly moving ahead in the race to sign Digne, with positive momentum on their side after the loan-in of Philippe Coutinho.
WILL IT HAPPEN? When I started writing this article on Jan. 1, I had it at40%. Reports now have Digne i) unimpressed with Newcastle’s relegation battle and ii) excited about the Villa project under Stevie G. As such, it looks like 10%. Newcastle should be pursuing Digne with haste. They can point to Kieran Trippier’s signing as a sign of their own intent, just as Coutinho may have excited Digne about Villa. Digne would be a massive offensive upgrade on the left side and should link up with Allan Saint-Maximin ahead of him. With injuries, Newcastle has had to deputize Jacob Murphy, a nominal winger, on the left side often this season. Despite some surprisingly positive ball-recovery stats from Murphy, Digne would certainly represent an upgrade defensively, scoring well in defending quality and quantity from smarterscout. The question is really: can Newcastle get him to sign on? Give him a relegation release clause so he’ll have his pick of clubs should Newcastle drop. Digne could be guarded against the drop, given a top-five Premier League contract in his position, and get that automatic starting XI spot back.
2. Kieran Trippier, RB, Atletico Madrid Newcastle (£12MM fee)
WHY? Like Digne, Trippier is a full-back proven at a level high above Newcastle’s. Unlike Digne, Trippier was still very much in his team’s plans. He was a stalwart for Diego Simeone’s Atletico side that won La Liga last year and is an England international; he was first-choice this year for the repeat bid. However, Trippier seemed homesick and a long-rumored move to Newcastle materialized. Newcastle is rumored to believe Trippier can slot in at CB if needed, and perhaps more so as his pace dwindles. He is 31.
WHY NOT?It does raise some eyebrows that Trippier would leave Atletico in the midst of a Champions’ League campaign, and the race for La Liga (and an Atletico repeat) is very much alive. So, why would Trippier come home? Maybe he’s homesick. Maybe his boys needed a win. There isn’t much to hold Newcastle back here, anyways, especially at that price.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 100%. When I began writing this article, it was 85%. I am very consistent in writing about my predictions at a much later date, when they’re less impressive and I don’t seem on the cutting edge at all for suggesting them (seriously, I began writing a Barcelona article on 9/27/2021 when Koeman was coach and they’d just lost to Benfica 3-0 at home). Trippier wanted to come home, and as has been pointed out elsewhere, the arrival of such an established international may be instrumental in wrangling up other recruits.
While we’re here, I’ve been sitting on a Saquon-bust article for 3 years and have made my feelings clear that Zion will be ineffective in 5 years.
The Attackers
3. Anthony Martial, CF/LW/RW, Manchester United (Value: $35.2MM; Proposed Loan Fee: €5MM)
WHY? Martial has found playing time hard to come by this season, managing only 200 minutes of league action over two starts and seven total appearances for Manchester United. You almost feel sorry for the man. At the end of last term, United looked like a team that desperately needed midfielders to funnel the ball into an overflowing fountain of attacking talent. A top-quality center-back was needed and found in Raphael Varane. Then, to provide service for Mason Greenwood, Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho, Edison Cavani, and Martial, United signed… Cristiano Ronaldo.
The funny thing about all of those names in front of Martial above is, well, they’re all in front of Martial for United. Martial needs to go somewhere permanently where he can play; his talent deserves it. A permanent move is not what we’re suggesting here, however. A six-month loan with a fee (€5-8MM?) to United would be a masterstroke for the Magpies. Martial could lead the line for Wilson and figure out a permanent move in the summer.
WHY NOT? Surprisingly, the party least likely to accede to this is Manchester United. Ralf Rangnick has made it (hilariously) clear that Martial has no serious suitors for a permanent deal, and should that continue to be the case, that Martial will stay. There may be some consternation pairing the similarly work-allergic Saint-Maximin and Martial together, but that is real nitpicking.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 5%. Manchester United seems content to hold onto the man who was Mbappe before Mbappe. This, of course, despite having Ronaldo, Greenwood, Cavani, Rashford, and Sancho ahead of him in the pecking order. And the loan fee to be collected. The Woodwards are affirmatively worse than the Kroenkes at this point.
4. Darwin Nunez, ST, Benfica (Value: $35.2MM; this is a bad valuation, think £50MM)
WHY? Now we’re cooking! Nunez feels like the type of signing that would really mark a statement of intent from the people who killed Jamal Khashoggi Newcastle. Only 22, Nunez’s hype picked up continental steam when he bagged a brace in Benfica’s famous/infamous 3-0 defeat of Barcelona in this year’s Champions League. He’s netted 13 times in 13 appearances for one of Portugal’s big three. Simply, players this young and this prolific usually go straight to a Juventus or a Dortmund. Nunez would be a signing not only for the relegation battle, but really the next three or four years until he needs an even bigger stage. It would be a major coup.
WHY NOT? Literally no reason.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 70%. The people who killed Jamal Khashoggi Newcastle has the money and Benfica knows Nunez isn’t long for the team. They are also sitting a distant third in Portugal’s three-horse race. The only question is whether the player will want to move to a bigger club right away.
5. Odion Ighalo, ST, Al-Shabab (Value: $3.85MM)
WHY? Don’t laugh! This isn’t reality TV!Every selling club is licking their lips at the idea of inflated, oil-money bids from the people who killed Jamal Khashoggi Newcastle. What better way to send a message to the market than buying the cheapest option available?
In all seriousness, Newcastle should probably bring in another striker. Ighalo put together a very respectable goalscoring record for Watford. He was deemed to be good enough cover by Manchester United as recently as 2020-2021 and did just fine.
WHY NOT?The only downside is if Ighalo has deteriorated rapidly over the last year – remember, he was a Man U player at the start of 2021. That’s a risk worth taking given the small money involved and, again, the risk of having to let Dwight Gayle onto the field.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 40%. It makes absolute sense from the economic and short-term cover perspectives. So why does the move still feel a bit dodgy? Ighalo was already left the land of bad teams and rich contracts once to provide cover; will he do it again? Are Newcastle interested in having Ighalo potentially lead the line down the stretch of a relegation battle? I would have had it wrapped already, but it doesn’t seem meant to be.
6. Ben Brereton Diaz, ST, Blackburn (Value: $11MM)
WHY? Newcastle needs, first and foremost, to avoid the drop. There are more exciting options than Diaz, but the priority is and should be cover until Wilson is healthy. That will be next season. Enter Diaz. He’s not the ambitious signing Newcastle wants and will eventually need up front. He is, however, on fire in the Championship, with 20 goals in 25 games for Blackburn. Diaz only has a contract through June 2022; could £10MM be enough?
WHY NOT? Again, Newcastle should be either be looking for i) cover at ST for the rest of the year or ii) the long-term answer at the position. At 22 years old, Diaz is an awkward fit. The richest team in the world should not want him starting, but he may be too good to be on the bench every week.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 2%. There are no real reports linking Diaz and Newcastle. Playing matchmaker, I think it makes sense; Diaz helps you now and should be a good second option in the future.
The Centre-Backs
7. Joe Rodon, CB, Tottenham Hotspur (Value: $8.8MM, Proposed Loan Fee: €1-2MM)
WHY? Carlos and Kelly are higher quality options, but Rodon is interesting for a team desperate for cover at the back. For one, he’s available: he’s barely appeared under at Tottenham this season and hasn’t played well when he was. Antonio Conte is famous/infamous for finding a XI and sticking with them; Dier, Sanchez, Davies (in a back three), Romero, and Tanganga are all certainly above the Welshman.
So why would Newcastle be interested? The Magpies need long-term answers at the position. I hope we’ve emphasized by now the need to stay up this year. The team trotted out something called a Emil Krafth for the embarrassing loss at Morecambe and there’s not much depth behind him. Rodon’s not had a peach of a time at Spurs. He did, however, shine in the Championship just two years ago and hasn’t had game time to prove himself since. As a loan, this makes too much sense. Tottenham wants to move on; Newcastle needs bodies at CB regardless if a more highly-touted option returns. Take a flier on Rodon for cheap and see if he can realize the potential that earned him the Tottenham move
WHY NOT? Daniel Levy is either the best negotiator in world football or more painful than a hip replacement depending on who you speak to. He will likely push for a permanent transfer rather than a loan. He’s also no doubt licking his chops at the oil money backing NUFC. You can’t pay over the moon for Rodon. He hasn’t earned it. If you need to stump up £10MM, sheesh, do it if you like the player. Anything more and you should move on.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 60%. This is a rumor with sustained traction approaching the January window. It also solves issues for both clubs. Tottenham want to sell; Newcastle badly need reinforcements and can get one here without paying through the nose. Rodon will play over Krafth and Federico Fernandez. As a Tottenham fan, I pray Levy gets this over the line.
8. Nat Phillips, CB, Liverpool (Value: $8.8MM; more likely to leave for ~£10-15MM)
WHY? You kind of feel for Phillips, insofar as you can feel bad for a man earning millions and plying his dream trade. When Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, and Joel Matip picked up injuries at various points last season, Liverpool faced a crisis at CB. Jordan Henderson was deployed there and Ben Davies (no, not that one) was signed. Both moves reeked of desperation. Phillips, an academy graduate, came in and made a very good account of himself for a team that finished third in the Premier league.
Why do we feel bad? After stepping up in a huge way for Liverpool last year, he has absolutely no path to minutes this year. Ibrahim Konate was signed from Leipzig; van Dijk, Gomez, and Matip are returned and ensconced above him. He’s too good to sit and not good enough for Liverpool. He has to leave
WHY NOT?There’s not much reason to say no. I will say Phillips doesn’t have the respect of the football community that last year’s play would seem to have earned him, for whatever the public’s opinion is worth. Sign him ahead of Rodon and for anything below ~£15MM. He’s English as well and counts toward your homegrown quota.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 35%. There are a lot of parallels with Rodon here: Liverpool doesn’t need him and Newcastle could certainly use him. He’s been linked more with Watford, though.
9. Benoit Badiashile, CB, Monaco (Value: $30.8MM)
WHY? Badiashile, a graduate of Monaco’s vaunted youth academy, has emerged as a target for Newcastle over the last month. How much that interest is correlated with Lille declaring Sven Botman off-limits, who knows; what is apparent is that Newcastle would get one for the future. He is 20 and featuring regularly in the Monaco side. He’d walk into Newcastle’s XI and would be a real coup.
WHY NOT?Actually, as of now, Badiashile couldn’t walk into Newcastle’s XI. He left a recent game against Nantes with injury. That will reportedly sideline him for six weeks. Newcastle needs reinforcements now.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 25%. Perhaps the opportunity to sign young Benoit is too much for the people who killed Jamal Khashoggi Newcastle to pass up. The injury puts a real sting on things, though – what’s the point of signing him if you’re headed to the Championship by the time he gets back? A pairing of Rodon/Phillips and Badiashile – one for now, one for later – might go together like steak and a fine wine.
The Wild Card
10. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, ST, Arsenal (Out of contract in the summer; proposed loan fee £5MM)
WHY? Oooohhh baby! I’ve been waiting for nine targets to get here! There’s a big reason this could be DOA, which we’ll get to soon, but the move makes a whole lot of sense. Aubameyang is one of Europe’s best strikers when he’s on, focused, whatever Stephen A. Smith platitudes you want to use for a man that racks up team-issued suspensions. His captaincy was stripped by Mikel Arteta; there doesn’t seem to be a path back into the team; and he’s got six months on his contract before he almost assuredly bolts for greener pastures. What if there was a team with a glaring hole up front that only needs six months of service?
Yeah. You can get this one.
Newcastle can tell Aubameyang to do whatever he wants so long as he shows up for matchdays. Arsenal would love to get his wages off their books, even for the short six-month spell, and a loan fee would be a cherry on top. After all, Aubameyang is almost certainly gone this summer. Arsenal gets some financial freedom from a player that they won’t play; Newcastle gets a massive difference-maker up front, and thus, a massive boost in their campaign to stay in the Premier League.
WHY NOT?The reason this makes so much sense is also a reason it could have no chance: Aubameyang’s contract length. He’s free to negotiate with other teams now. He’ll certainly find suitors, and his contract will be paid by Arsenal no matter what. What incentive does he have to go scrap at the bottom of the table? Really, just one thing: an ability to stick it to Arsenal and show off for suitors. He could be injured doing so, though, killing his next move.
WILL IT HAPPEN? 1.5%. I can’t see Aubameyang risking injury right before he’s able to sign a new contract. Moreover, it will be his last big contract at 32. How badly does he feel aggrieved by Arsenal? Does he want to play right now? He probably shouldn’t. But, good lord – if Newcastle can find some way to sweeten the pot short of signing him this summer, they should chase it with their hair on fire.
Quick Hits
With no gametime in Paris, Gigi Wijnaldum has been linked time and time again with a loan move to Newcastle. It seems too much of a whirlwind for the man who left Liverpool for PSG. Would he pack up again after six months to slog it out with his old team? I think (hope) not … Gagibol seems a long-term project that could use settling in the Premier League, nevermind past discipline issues. That is not the situation Newcastle find themselves in. With only a touch of facetiousness, Ighalo would be more useful over the last part of the season. Wait until the summer if you’re in love with him … Coutinho would’ve made a world of sense, and Newcastle should’ve been able to cover more of his wages, but the Stevie G connection proved too much … Andrea Belotti seems to have turned down the club and doesn’t make much sense with Wilson returning next season; Belotti is too good to be six months’ cover and too old to be a piece of the future … Divock Origi makes good sense to be fair … Rangers may want to hold firm on Alfredo Morelos after seeing Nathan Patterson leave and Connor Goldson likely to leave in summer … Can you get Eddie Nketiah in January? Unlikely unless PEA is reintegrated and Arsenal is resigned to losing him.
First Take Forever 