The Golden Globes are done. There was the good (Jennifer Coolidge), the bad (The Bear was a comedy? Good lord), and the ugly (Costner over Odenkirk). Movie freaks around the globe can turn their focus to the real prize: March’s 95th Academy Awards Ceremony. The below is a guide to the six “major” races, a preview of predicted nominees, and a prediction of who should, and crucially who will, win gold in March. Those six races are Best Picture, Best Director, and the core four acting awards.
There is a lot to cover in the six races below so let’s not spend too much time here. A couple of notes for to help you through this guide:
- If I could find available betting odds to show, I would. In my experience Vegas is by far the best predictor of these awards – not Ebert, Roeper, or your local LA Times scribe. I try to note where I think lines would be, and I would bet all of my “will win” nominees unless they are absurdly favored.
- We will be trying to predict the final five nominees for every acting category (ten for Best Picture). For all races below, I’ll let you know who I think will win, which takes some thinking and logic. I try to be unemotional there. Then I’ll let you know who I think should win, and for that, you may make fun of my taste.
- Breakdown of my tiers:
- LOCKS: Candidates in this category almost certainly will be nominated, barring some disaster before the January 17th voting deadline.
- ON THE BUBBLE: Candidates in this category aren’t definites to be nominated, but there are positives surrounding their candidacy (performance, media buzz, buzz about movie, etc.) and they have a good chance of being nominated.
- BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: Candidates in this category have a low-to-miniscule chance of being nominated.
- The names you see in each tier are roughly ordered by chances of success. For example, I think Tom Cruise has a better chance of getting nominated than Gabriel LaBelle.
- I refuse to see The Fabelmans. I hope it loses everything. I’m sure it’s great and nothing against anyone involved – I’d just rather sign up for the next four years of Kevin Hart movies than watch Steven Spielberg’s young adult years.
Here we go…
Best Actor
LOCKS: Austin Butler, Elvis; Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Colin Farrell, Banshees of Inisherin; Bill Nighy, Living
ON THE BUBBLE: Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick; Hugh Jackman, The Son; Tom Hanks, A Man Named Otto; Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: Jeremy Pope, The Inspection; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Adam Sandler, Hustle
In Greek mythology, a hydra was a monster commonly depicted as growing two heads every time one managed to be cut off. This Best Actor race was supposed to be over back in June with Austin Butler’s sweaty reincarnation of Elvis. And he’s really good. Even if he needs to work on, like, speaking as Austin Butler.
Brendan Fraser cut off the Butler-is-a-lock head emphatically. The Whale is the perfect comeback vehicle, with Darren Aronofsky driving, doing donuts and testing the zero to 60. It’s probably the biggest comeback vehicle, in fact, since Aronofsky resuscitated Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler.
But this race is not just a two-headed hydra. Bill Nighy emerged at about the same time Fraser started his theatrical run. Banshees of Inisherin led the Globes with eight nominations, and it made you wonder – does Colin Farrell have a real shot at this thing?
Farrell is deserving. It’s great to see him here, even as a dark horse, after In Bruges – he and Martin McDonagh’s first and best collaboration – got nary a nomination. Nighy has earned his flowers. In Living, the Kurosawa remake, he demonstrates how loud an understated, subtle performance can actually be. It’s even better when your favorite role of his previously was the rocker in Love Actually. And so we have instead a four-headed hydra: Butler, Fraser, Nighy, and Farrell. These four make a rock-solid top tier. Whoever joins them is lucky to do so.
So who’s left? Cruise just helmed one of the most successful movies ever released. Jackman, reliably solid, has some unreleased Oscar-bait forthcoming in The Son. Who doesn’t love Tom Hanks? And Gabriel LaBelle just played Steven Spielberg. I think Cruise gets the last nod here – the man saved movies, after all.
AND THE NOMINEES ARE…: Butler, Fraser, Nighy, Farrell, Cruise.
While the next award race is arguably closer than Best Actor, this is the most difficult to predict. I think the aforementioned four all have a chance at the trophy. In this banner year, however, it should come down to our first two entrants: Butler and Fraser.
It’s tight. It really is. Whale was released in the “sweet spot” for awards season – long enough ago to build momentum, not long enough to make people forget the performance. The Oscars love biopics, too, and Butler only has to look back a few years to see a sweaty, singing-and-dancing-centric role deliver a Best Actor. What Butler and Rami Malek have in common is that their movies weren’t very good. What Malek enjoyed, and Butler does not, is a drought of extremely qualified competitors in the race.
Maybe this is wishful thinking, since I absolutely adore Fraser and The Whale. I really do think Fraser’s comeback story proves too juicy for the Academy to ignore.
Who should win? Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Who will win? Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Best Actress
LOCKS: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Cate Blanchett, Tar; Michelle Williams, Ughhhh
ON THE BUBBLE: Viola Davis, The Woman King; Danielle Deadwyler, Till; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Margot Robbie, Babylon
One of the fun aspects of extrapolating the Golden Globes to the Oscars is that the Globes bifurcates its Best Actor/Actress and Best Picture categories into two: Drama and Musical/Comedy. That creates more nominees and some healthy debate about what should go where (see: The Bear). What that bifurcation also can do is leave us hanging when two favorites fail to compete directly with each other.
And so, the Best Actress award. This is the closest race of the five major awards. Blanchett and Yeoh are in a dead heat – if I could find Vegas odds, they’d have to be close to even for these two. By virtue of being Steven Spielberg’s onscreen mother, Michelle Williams is almost certainly in for a nomination. Then things get interesting.
Viola Davis, Danielle Deadwyler, Ana de Armas, and Olivia Colman seem to be the four competing for these last two spots. Davis got in ridiculous shape for the role, which always helps. Deadwyler is a heartbroken mother, which always helps. The biggest wild card of the group is Ana de Armas’s… dedicated performance in Blonde. We’ve run the gamut on Blonde. The Best Actress race was supposed to wrapped up in early fall, after numerous ovations at foreign festivals. Then, people actually, you know, saw the movie. Don’t blame Ana. The director has landed in controversy over how exploitative the film was. It really does feel like the media has swung full circle here, and de Armas grabs a spot. The only thing that the wondrous Colmanhas going for her is that no one went to see her movie. It’s supposed to be poor.
That leaves one spot for Davis and Deadwyler. I lean slightly to the smaller, more intimate Till role over what was a commercial success in Woman King. I won’t argue with you if you lean Davis.
AND THE NOMINEES ARE…: Yeoh, Blanchett, Williams, Deadwyler, de Armas.
Since Yeoh and Blanchett didn’t get to compete directly against each other, there’s not a lot to take away from the Globes. Except this – Everything Everywhere All at Once has momentum. Forget wins for Ke Huy Quan and Yeoh. Both of EEAAO’s directors nabbed Best Director noms at the Globes. Without the benefit of Elias Sports Bureau, I’m guessing that that is the first time two directors have been nominated for the same movie.
There also really seems to be some media eyerolling over Blanchett and Tar. I love Cate Blanchett. She was one of about three good things in Don’t Look Up. I don’t believe that she would ever take a role specifically to try to get an Oscar.
But…
Blanchett’s role screams Oscar. Not an authentic scream. A really loud, in-your-face, yodel. I’m not throwing dirt on Blanchett’s performance at all, but this is a movie ChatGPT would come up with if you asked it to write you a Best Actress-worthy role. A little too… award bait-y. Meanwhile, not only does EEAAO have momentum, but Yeoh seems like one of Hollywood’s universally beloved figures. She’s been great and active for years and is just now getting her due. I think this goes to Yeoh – partially as a lifetime achievement award, partially with just how much she carried EEAAO, and partially with a dose of Tar fatigue. Yeoh deserves it.
Who should win? Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who will win? Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
LOCKS: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin
ON THE BUBBLE: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway; Paul Dano, Ughhhh; Barry Keoghan, Banshees of Inisherin
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: Michael Ward, Empire of Light; Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse; Tom Hanks, Elvis
Best Actress is a two-woman dogfight. Best Actor also likely comes down to two candidates, although four have a shot. Tired of the two-party system? Slaps Best Supporting Actor award. Let me tell you, this thing can fit a lot of awards uncertainty.
Let’s start with the two nominee locks. Ke Huy Quan needs no introduction here after winning at the Globes. Brendan Gleeson is really one of two lead actors in Banshees, but for his sake, he’ll be entered as supporting.
Judd Hirsch is about as close one can be to a lock without making that tier. And really, if you wanted to move him there, I wouldn’t argue. Having refused affiliation with anything Fabelmans-related I have no idea what his performance looks like. My only fear would be he and Dano cannibalize each other’s support, given they both play Spielbergs. One and maybe both will make it. Keoghan has been one of my favorite up-and-comers since Black ’47 and it’s probably time to stop calling him up-and-coming. He’s here. Go look at his deleted scene as the Joker in The Batman – a true, unmissable talent. He joins Gleeson and Hirsch, and maybe Dano.
It’s not a great year for Best Supporting Actor. The “Supportings” are actually my favorite awards of the night – more meritocratic than the Bests, and willing to award smaller roles. Look at some of the line-ups we had in the last decade:
I say this with all respect: 2023 is not 2016. It is certainly not 2012. You typically see three or four people with real cases to take home a trophy. This year? We struggle to come up with five. Brian Tyree Henry is getting a lot of love for Causeway. I’m sure he’s his typically terrific self. Ward has gotten good reviews, but like Colman, suffers from a movie that no one is really excited about. Redmayne is Redmayne. And God bless, I love me some Tom Hanks, but somehow he is circling around this conversation for Elvis.
Let’s throw Henry and Keoghan in there and move on.
AND THE NOMINEES ARE…: Quan, Gleeson, Hirsch, Henry, Keoghan.
Unfortunately, I don’t think this will be much of a race. Quan is a heartwarming story. Who didn’t have a stupid grin seeing him reunited with Harrison Ford? His is a really good performance in a great movie. I tread lightly speaking about him here. He’s by all accounts a great guy. His personal story is great – tear-inducing even. I just feel Yeoh, and the directors, carried EEAAO.
What to say for the legendary Brendan Gleeson? He’s great. So, so good. I would submit he’s a better performance than Quan. It does not and will not matter. Quan just beat Gleeson head-to-head at the Globes and it’s hard to picture Quan leaving this ceremony without a shiny new trophy.
Who should win? Brendan Gleeson, Banshees of Inisherin
Who will win? Ko Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress
LOCKS: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin
ON THE BUBBLE: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Hong Chau, The Whale; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Jessie Buckley, Women Talking; Rooney Mara, Women Talking; Carey Mulligan, She Said; Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: None
We’ve come to the last of the core four acting awards. This is my favorite race in 2023. We’ll start, as always, with locks: Angela Bassett is coming off a Globes win. She also has significant social media support. I view her as the favorite here. Kerry Condon has gotten a lot of love for Banshees. I place her with Quan in the good but the movie was great category, but Condon will be here.
There are eight legitimate candidates I could see grabbing one of the last three nominations. Curtis and Hsu are riding the wave of EEAAO. Truthfully (and embarrassingly) I didn’t realize that that was Jamie Lee Curtis until there was about an hour left in the movie. She’s not just good, she’s good. So is Hsu. Naturally, you have to worry about them eating into each other’s votes. I think Curtis gets the nod as the bigger name and as a tribute to her career and recent resurgence (Halloween, Knives Out).
God bless whoever must decide the rest. Chau gets a lot of screen time in a five-actor movie. Mulligan’s role is the type that’s been rewarded ad nauseam in recent years (think Spotlight and Bombshell). Buckley and Rooney Mara seem to be the standouts from Women Talking – with Buckley just ahead of Mara in buzz. Dolly de Leon was the breakout star of the Palme d’Or-winning Triangle of Sadness, specifically the movie’s never-ending third act. Her co-star Charlbi Dean tragically passed in 2022 and could easily receive a posthumous nomination.
Pick your poison. I don’t expect to predict this race much better than if you picked names out of a hat. Give me Curtis for a lifetime achievement award, Chau as the nontraditional second lead of a very buzz-y movie, and Mulligan as a red-hot actress (just delightful in Promising Young Woman and The Dig) in the right role.
AND THE NOMINEES ARE…: Bassett, Condon, Curtis, Chau, Mulligan.
I’ve referred to “lifetime achievement awards” a couple of times now. They can be deployed pejoratively, but not here. Narratives are a huge component of the Oscar races: fair or not, everyone loves a comeback story. An award for the same level of performance in two different films will generally go to the actress in the superior film. And so on.
Angela Bassett has the momentum and a Globe. Despite its superhero plot, Wakanda Forever gives her an extremely emotional role as the mourning mother of Chadwick Boseman. And her first and only nomination was thirty years ago in 1993. She, like Yeoh, has been very active (and very good) in the meantime. People will rejoice when she gets her flowers.
Now, Condon has a movie that is unquestionably better received by awards bodies. Although Condon didn’t pull out a Globe, Banshees won Best Picture – Musical/Comedy and Farrell and McDonagh took home gold. Her movie certainly has a lot of momentum. I can’t see Curtis getting here with Hsu lurking.
Take your pick between Bassett and Condon. Bassett delivers a powerhouse performance, emotionally anchoring what should be Boseman’s sequel. It’s a somber backdrop one can’t escape during the movie, and Bassett brings it home. I think Bassett brings home an Oscar as well.
Who should win? Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Who will win? Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Director
WINNER: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Damn it.
LOCKS: The Fabelmans; Top Gun: Maverick; Banshees of Inisherin; Everything Everywhere All at Once; Tar
ON THE BUBBLE: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; All Quiet on the Western Front; Living; The Whale; Avatar: The Way of Water; Pinocchio; The Woman King; RRR; Till; Women Talking
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR: She Said; A Man Called Otto; Elvis; Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Babylon; Aftersun
We’re back to a fixed ten films for Best Picture, after anywhere from 5-10 could make be nominated from 2012-2020. Quick aside here – the Academy has mismanaged the number-of-films debate so badly. It’s a mess of their own making, and instead of cleaning it up, they rolled around in their crap, and then crapped the bed a few more times.
The Best Picture list was expanded after the 2009 Oscars debacle, where The Dark Knight failed to garner a Best Picture nomination. The Christopher Nolan masterpiece got screwed not because there weren’t enough spots. Instead, prejudice surrounding a “comic book movie” prevented it from getting enough votes. Remember, now, that TDK is not a Marvel movie. It was about as realistic a superhero portrayal as you can get, for a guy that has the most advanced technology in the world, is a billionaire, etc. etc. Let me put it two other ways.
I’d bet my life, and the life of my family, if TDK came out today, it would be nominated for Best Picture.
The Reader is not the reason why TDK couldn’t be nominated. Yeah. Go watch it. Or don’t.
Predictably, the Academy faced a lot of backlash as to why Nolan’s movie could not crack the Best Picture shortlist. It couldn’t say, Hey, you know, our people won’t vote for superhero movies on principle but that will change in the next 15 years. Instead, they noted the number of high-quality contenders and that it was a tough year to make it. Seriously. The Academy should have to come out and announce when it’s not a strong year for Best Pictures after an excuse that weak.
And so, the Academy went to ten nominees in 2010 and 2011. That led to the following movies being nominated for Best Picture: Toy Story 3, The Blind Side, Precious, District 9, Up, and Winter’s Bone.
I can hear some moronic chatter in the background. Up was heartwarming. Didn’t Sandra get an Oscar for Blind Side? To which I paraphrase a sports quote about the Hall of Fame. The award is for Best Picture. Not the Very Good Picture. Not the, I Really Liked That Movie, It’s a B+ Picture. Seriously. Going to ten absolutely dilutes the significance of the Best Picture nomination.
Now, the Academy was facing backlash and explaining why the third Toy Story movie had to be nominated. And so it brought on its second terrible solution: going forward, there would be anywhere from 5-10 nominations.
Now, Hollywood’s been described as a buddy-buddy business and I imagine it is so. The 5-10 nominations actually really makes sense in theory. Kind of the way communism does. In what world would the Academy put out 6 nominees and tell the four next best movies, Hey, we had some open slots, but we can all agree your movie wasn’t good enough? It was a disaster in practice. Kind of like communism.
This is a very longwinded way of saying that we should still only have five Best Picture nominees. This became apparent to me as I had to judge between the merits of *checks notes* Elvis, Babylon, and Avatar 2: Return of the Blue People. It’s supposed to be hard to cut movies down to 5, people. That’s what makes the nominations special.
Taris only a lock with 10 candidates. The other four deserve to be there. I’m somehow seeing Elvis amongst Oscar prediction lists – I imagine they did not see the movie? I didn’t see Fabelmans. Who am I to judge? All Quiet on the Western Front will be nominated if there’s any justice in the world. Unfortunately, it just lost the Foreign Film race at the Globes. That’s not a great sign. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is an easy nomination as its predecessor was nominated and I’m sure Feige and Disney are throwing money wherever it needs to go to make the nomination happen.
Triangle of Sadness won the Palme D’Or – but is kneecapped a bit by the similar The Menu. I also thought the third act could’ve been cut by half an hour. Hollywood loves and owes James Cameron for so much. I did think it was hilarious when a Disney exec, with a straight face, called the first Avatar “one of the most influential films ever made.” When Blue People 2: Return of the Blue came out, I stayed true to myself and made fun of anyone that went to see it. Guess what? I don’t vote for the Oscars! Cameron and the blue 8-footers get a nomination. I’m sure the CGI was just groundbreaking.
Box office should not be a big factor in the Best Picture race, but Women Talking’s run has been so anemic, I don’t see it making the cut. Living and The Whale are bothanchored by towering Best Actor performances. The former has a better chance than the latter. The Woman King was a critical and commercial success, anchored by a Viola Davis who might get squeezed from a Best Actress nomination. Hopefully, she can take solace in a Best Picture nom. The Oscars love Viola Davis. You know who else they love? Guillermo del Toro. Pinocchio grabs our last nomination here.
AND THE NOMINEES ARE…: The Fabelmans, Top Gun: Maverick, Banshees of Inisherin, EEAAO, Tar, Pinocchio, The Woman King, Living, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Avatar: Way of Water.
Oh God please no anyone but Steven Spielberg’s autobiographical film. Please God – he’s just shooting his childhood ages 8-17 – not everyone can fall for this? What about Top Gun: Maverick? It’s credited with almost single-handedly bringing back the in-theater experience. Banshees of Inisherin has the best combination of fantastic screenplay and fantastic acting.
Panicked looking around the room.
Everything Everywhere All at Once was like nothing we’ve ever seen! Can we have a non-serious movie win for once?
Gulping.
Avatar 2 just did two billy at the box office. Did you see Angela Bassett in Black Panther? Did you??? Did you know Tom Cruise flew a real plane for Maverick??
Who should win? Banshees of Inisherin
Who will win? The Fabelmans
First Take Forever 