It’s January, a time for resolutions, predictions and ill-fated, temporary sobriety. My resolution this year is to write more predictions. Also: to be more Hemingway, less sizeable, superfluous sentences. I’m almost certain to fail at the last one. I give you ten predictions for 2025 across the world, covering politics (1), film and television (3), and sports (6). The rankings are from mildest to spiciest: #10 is very unlikely to happen, #1 is very likely to happen. What’s the fun of predicting things that will come true?
Without further ado…
1. Musk and Trump break up
This is so fait accompli, it feels like cheating to include it. There’s already a storm brewing over H1-Bs, but: Tillerson lasted a year. Mattis lasted under two years. Sessions lasted a year-plus. Perry lasted two. Musk doesn’t have a (real) title, nor a confirmation hearing, and as it made his entry to power easier, it will make his exit easier too. Imagine the name-calling that will ensue after the break-up.
2. The Caitlyn Clark-Angel Reese rivalry ends as we know it
At this point, the clips of people like Diana Taurasi and Sheryl Swoopes talking about how Caitlyn Clark would struggle against more *physical* competition has the feel of the 2002 Cavs team talking about how LeBron would struggle to make an immediate impact in the NBA. Yeah, she won Rookie of the Year with 66 of 67 votes (Angel Reese’s mom casting the other). Yeah, she had the most assists in the league and was seventh in scoring. Yeah, she finished fourth in MVP voting and was the first rookie since ’08 to be named All-WNBA first-team. You get it. Yeah. I said Angel Reese got the other ROY vote, but it’s over. The whole, Reese v. Clark debate, if it was ever one, it is over. It’s not even going to be fake fuel on the ESPN/FS1 bonfire. Clark is already the biggest star in the league. Next year, it’s her vs. Plum vs. Wilson vs. Ionescu. We’ll finally, blessedly stop seeing side-by-sides of Reese and Clark. Reese is simply not the field upon which Clark will be measured anymore.
Now if I said Jemele Hill stop race baiting Clark, that’d be #10.
3. Islam Makhachev is the double-champ
With a win against Arman Tsarukyan on January 18, Islam Makhachev will have officially cleared out the lightweight division. The next options up are unappealing: Charles Oliviera has lost since he lost the belt; Max Holloway and Renato Moicano need one and two wins, respectively; and everyone else is “ehh.” Islam has been vocal about his desire to move up to welterweight and become the first champion to defend two belts at once. With a potential fifth straight championship on the way, it’s time that becomes a possibility. Truthfully, UFC’s premier division is very deep but not top-heavy. Outside of Arman, no one is truly deserving to fight for the belt.
That means Islam should be free to move up after February (and at worst, after one more fight in the summer). There are a ton of exciting, unproven contenders at 170, but the UFC likes big fights. Nothing is bigger than the most dominant fighter on the roster trying to add a second belt. If Shavkat Rakhmonov beats Belal Muhammad, it stands to reason Islam will have first crack at him. Islam’s a massive 55er, and should not give up too much size at 70. I think Islam beats Shavkat (or almost anyone who’s holding the strap) and ends 2025 with his dreams realized.
4. Severance finally breaks through at the Emmys, The Bear finally pounds sand
Severance was the buzziest new show upon its debut in 2022 (maybe Squid Game?). It was excellent. And it won exactly zero awards for it, going 0-6 as it ran into the Succession buzzsaw. Well, no more. Not only will it win Best Drama Series, Adam Scott will take home his first award, I think, ever. It’s amazing – there have been two Emmy ceremonies since it premiered. Thank god it didn’t come out last year, as Shogun ran the f***ing roost.
In other news, this is the year everyone admits The Bear was a masterclass in season 1, really good in season 2, and not special in season 3. There’s another season coming, which I think is the last, but: voters felt contractually obligated to keep fawning over this show. No mas. I bet Ayo wins Best Actress in a Comedy, JAW wins nothing, and the show doesn’t win for comedy. Because, you know – it isn’t a comedy.
5. Drake Maye establishes himself as QB1 of the 2024 draft class
Drake Maye was drafted third overall in 2024. He was also the third quarterback drafted. The 2024 class is shaping up to be legendary – cautiously, one of the best in recent memory. Caleb Williams had a pretty good rookie season all things considering, only disappointing his massive pre-draft hype. Jayden Daniels won Rookie of the Year and looks like a superstar, today. Bo Nix competed with him until the end for ROY, and JJ McCarthy hasn’t thrown a ball yet. Michael Penix also looks good.
Anyways.
Maye had hands-down the worst supporting cast in football, and may have had the worst O-line too. I won’t get too far into the latter – Mike Owenwu is the only average player on the line – but the Patriots had three #3 receivers running routes for them in Kayshon Boutte, Pop Douglas, and Kendrick Bourne. The #3 tag might be generous, even. The Patriots have the #4 pick in the draft and the most cap space in the NFL. They are an almost-certainty to bring in significant help on both the line and in the receiving room, potentially with a tackle at #4 and Tee Higgins in free agency. Much was made of Caleb Williams in Chicago having the best situation ever for a rookie. Maye outplayed him with a fraction of the talent. Upgrades anywhere will show Maye has the most staying power and highest ceiling of anyone in the group. I think Jayden is somewhat maxxed out with an easier gameplan and with his legs.
6. Conor McGregor fights (in the UFC!) again
To the uninitiated, this may seem like a slam dunk. The UFC’s most lucrative and highly-paid fighter, fighting? Why wouldn’t he? Media (and fellow fighters) have, almost to a man, thrown their hands up at this point and said he’s not coming back. He’s got too much money. The fire is gone.
The rumored boxing fight between McGregor and Logan Paul doesn’t really do much to assuage these concerns. But the reality is, McGregor was going to fight last year before he got injured. He seems bored. He is training, he’s wrestling and doing BJJ, and it doesn’t really matter what shape or sharpness he brings to the table in his return. Idiots will pay for him to fight. At the beginning of my UFC fandom, I was one of those idiots, watching him KO Cerrone. The name, the mystique, it’s too much to resist. Conor and the UFC can cherrypick any opponent they want. He could fight a guy on the street and it’d do ten times the numbers of, say, Belal Muhammad vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov. Who? Exactly.
There’s too much money at stake, he doesn’t have to fight anyone real or that will wrestle him, and he seems to be (somewhat) itching for the competition. It’ll happen.
7. Anora unites a plurality and wins Best Picture
This was going to be #3 before The Brutalist and Emilia Perez took home Golden Globes for the two movies categories. I think there’s a harder road to climb than I did yesterday. Yesterday, it had the best odds to win Best Picture. Today, it’s fourth on FanDuel. I’m not really worried about Conclave – male-dominated, about the Church – but Emilia and Brutalist really scare me.
Still.
Without seeing it, I don’t think Emilia is that good. Selena Gomez was getting Best Supporting Actress buzz, which means, to me, that the PR machine is in f***ing overdrive right now. With all due respect to Selena, she couldn’t act during Wizards of Waverly Place and she can’t act now. I think Emilia hits the “marginalized person” theme that drives an Oscar win, and that scares me. I think Brutalist is as Oscar-y as it gets. With the long runtime and pale box office, in most years, it’s going home a loser. This is a weak year for Best Picture. The scary, most likely scenario is Emilia and Anora split the comedy electorate and Brutalist takes home the Oscar.
However.
I think Anora is the best movie this year. I can see a scenario where voters unite behind it – with Emilia occupying the foreign space, Brutalist just barely not good enough to run away with it, and Anora being on demand and able to be watched/rewatched. Wicked – Variety’s predicted winner before the Globes – is just not serious enough as a movie for me to take it here. This is going out on a limb. Anora is currently the fourth-best odds to win. I’m picking with my heart, and a little faith. All the films have their flaws.
8. Alabama football slips into a malaise, misses CFP again
Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but it’s interesting (as pointed out by many) that the downfall of the SEC coincides with an ability/willingness of all of college football to pay players. It’s entirely possible, even likely, that this is a one-year blip from the top dogs (Bama, UGA, LSU… A&M?) rather than an indictment they, you know, had a jump on the whole paying-players thing. Bama faces an uncertain QB picture with probable first-rounder Jalen Milroe leaving, and he had a good enough year to be the Heisman favorite at one point. I think Nick Saban was s****ing out top-5 teams by magic and fire. Obviously the best football coach of his generation, and with due respect to DeBoer, he’s several leagues away from that. Is DeBoer a good coach? Sure. Alabama coaches get graded on a different scale (like #10 below). Saban set unrealistic expectations year-in, year-out, while 9-3 is pretty freaking good for a first-year coach, it doesn’t get it done at Bama. DeBoer prints a carbon copy of last year, good enough to not be canned but not good enough for the CFP, and enters 2026 on the hottest of seats.
9. Wicked, currently predicted by Variety to win Best Picture, is shut out of the Big 6
Every year, I see the ten films nominated for Best Picture. I saw Wicked yesterday. I’m not the target demographic. It was just fine.
What’s not fine is the Oscar buzz it’s producing. Variety is projecting it to win Best Picture, Best Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Best Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), and to get a nomination for Best Director (Jon M. Chu).
Variety knows what they’re talking about!
Not a single one of these will come to pass.
First of all, Best Picture seems exceedingly unlikely to me. The Brutalist will have its theatrical run during prime Oscar-baiting season. Emilia Perez is on fire. And you know who I think should win, anyways. It’s just very rare for these
- massive blockbusters to win – see Avatar, Barbie, Big Short
- musicals to win – see West Side Story, La La Land, Les Miserables
- highly-CGI’d movies to win – see Avatar again, Dune, Black Panther
Ariana Grande was very good for a singer. Very good for a singer should not mean an Oscar – sorry, Selena Gomez – and I’m for anything that means that Gomez doesn’t sniff gold. For Christ’s sakes. After her win last night, Zoe Saldana seems the woman to beat there. Chu was the best thing about the movie but will run into the buzzsaw that is Brady Corbet. Lastly, Erivo has the best shot of the four. She plays the disadvantaged, or discriminated against, character, whatever you want to call someone that’s green the whole movie. The problem is, who stops her? Mikey Madison should, but I don’t know if people are ready for that yet. I think the combination of Madison and Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who also won last night, keep it away from Erivo. And the unserious movie goes home with seriously no awards. As it should be.
10. Real Madrid part ways with Carlo Ancelotti on bad terms, narrowly avoiding the sack
What to say about a team that is in first place in La Liga, threatening to win their second straight title and still alive in all competitions? Well, they’re playing their best football of the year and figure to a) add players this month and b) get people, like David Alaba, back soon. So this could look really stupid if they start humming. There are, however, signs of trouble that I’ll link and not expand on too much. Stats are down. They’ve had a terrible (for them) showing in the Champions League, resting 20th of 36 teams (one below Club Brugge); almost certainly they’ll be relegated to a two-leg knockout tie to advance to the real knockout rounds.
That’s, again, a lot of doomsday talk for a squad leading the league. Poised to recapture many important players from injury, it is more likely that Madrid gets better over the rest of the season. That’s why this is #10. Still, there are clouds over the Bernabeu. After signing best-in-the-world Kylian Mbappe on a free(-ish) transfer, the idea was that this team would improve on last year’s all-conquering side. Somehow. Yet there is very much a sense that the team is less than the sum of its parts. Here’s what would have to happen:
Real would have to be knocked out in this new playoff round. That’s an absolute possibility with the team stuck in third gear and given the randomness of a two-leg tie. Then, with immense pressure and disappointment suddenly heaped on, league results would have to falter. Madrid loses the Clasico, again, and falls behind Barcelona (who also need to play better). Locker room drama is the easy part – with poor results, one of Mbappe, Vinicius, or Rodrygo (definitely Rodrygo) is asked to play far out of position or is out of the team entirely. Newspapers pounce. With this many stars on the team and the prospect of losing both the league and their Champions’ League defense before it started, all eyes point to the manager. Hey, who’s to say Carlo wants to be here anyway? He’s 65 and might be tiring of the circus.
Ancelloti is one of the best coaches in the world. He’s almost certainly the best coach for Real Madrid, able to juggle player’s egos and a top-heavy roster deftly. It doesn’t matter. Like Alabama at #7, coaches at Madrid are judged differently. Ruthlessly. This isn’t Newcastle. If Madrid lose early in the Champions League and don’t have a very credible push to win the league, there will be a new manager next season. Now, he has too much credibility to be fired midseason. I think. But an unhappy divorce, after such a successful marriage, will occur in the summer.
…
What’s more likely to happen is that Ancelotti leads Madrid to another title, a domestic cup or two, and they go far in the Champions League. In fact, everything from 5-10 is unlikely to happen. That’s why my predictions are better than most: not because they’re right! Because they’re going on a limb. They’re ballsy. Good luck to you and your predictions – I’d love to hear what anyone has to say. LFG, 2025.
First Take Forever 