I’m slacking big time again. I’m 80% thru with the write-up but I can’t keep watching and writing. Official predictions (with selected commentary):
Best Picture: OBAA
Best Actor: Tim Chalamet
At the risk of saying this about a category every year: the Best Actor race this season is the craziest I’ve ever seen in an awards season. Right after nominations came out, it seemed to have everything: a two-horse race between the old guard (DiCaprio) and new school (Chalamet). A nomination for an international actor with no chance of winning the award. A small upset of a veteran actor – Hawke – beating out a critical darling in Mescal and Hamnet (bonus points for the movie about the industry – and sorry, Clooney, that that schtick didn’t work for you). Finally, there was a feel-good nomination for one of the most popular movies of the year – Jordan in Sinners.
So: who will win between DiCaprio and Chalamet? Well… I have some news. Chalamet went on a press tour unlike anything ever seen, which vaulted him to a clear favorite over DiCaprio. DiCaprio was the best performance of the year for my money, and I’m not his biggest fan. Jordan, but really Sinners at large, saw a lot of momentum at the Actors Awards. That is the last stop on the race before the big night tonight. Variety will have you believe Moura and Hawke have a shot. That really just feels like lazily fleshing out an article than real analysis. There is something that industry insiders miss every single year. Through conversations they have with people in-the-know, they hear good things about the #4 and #5 “seeds” in these races; that they have a lot of goodwill or support built up. It just never turns to be the case. Poor Moura – he’s deserving – but while Parasite may have nudged foreign films closer to center, but can you name the last actor to win for a non-English speaking performance? Fire up Chat.
Now? Jordan should be thanking his lucky stars for i) Jonathan Majors being an idiot (and arguably much, much worse) and not being, uhh, available to play Smoke/Stack… and ii) Chalamet’s fumble at 1st-and-goal two weeks ago. His ballet discussion, and especially the discourse after, is so dumb I don’t want to relitigate any of it. I believe two things;
- The problem wasn’t really about Chalamet’s ballet/theatre comments, but his complete oversaturation of the awards race circuit; no one likes desperation; and
- The “fumble” happened too close to ballots being turned in to flip this to Jordan.
On Kalshi, Chalamet has hovered around 70% to win Best Actor until the Actor Awards; his ballet comments flipped the numbers completely to Jordan. I loved Jordan in Sinners. He would be a very deserving winner, and frankly, I think history would look back fondest if he won – rather than Leo’s 9th nomination or Chalamet’s 4th best performance in a young career. I don’t particularly like Chalamet. I didn’t think his performance was that special. I do think the current market, as we go into tonight, way overprices Jordan’s odds. Ballot voting starting on Feb. 26 and closed on March 5th – Jordan won on March 1, and the Chalamet discussion really picked up around that time too. Awful timing? Sure. But Jordan was not considered a lock for a nomination in this awards cycle.
Am I kicking myself that I didn’t grab Jordan for Best Actor when he was at 3% (+3000), like I did with Coogler and Sinners? Absolutely. Would I, and will I bet him, on this surge when ballots have been closed for a week? No.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see anyone win but Hawke. Moura would be slightly behind him. I wonder if DiCaprio sneaks a win just from the Chalamet-Jordan split… This will be fun.
Who should win? Leonardo DiCaprio, OBAA
Who will win? Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Who should I bet? Sweet T, Marty Supreme (30%) and DiCaprio (5%)
Best Actress: Buckley (easy)
Best Supporting: Penn; queasy that he’s seemingly unliked in the industry, didnt do any press before, didn’t show up to the show, and Stellan is eligible for a lifetime achievement award
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana
Don’t think she deserves it but such a toss-up and she’s been the favorite; think Madigan deserves it
Director: really tough. Will be PTA but prediction markets show a blowout (95-5% to PTA); tough for Coogler but he can wipe his tears on the other statues he’ll win tonight
Actor is really, really exciting/tight. So much going on – I think the “momentum change” happened too late for MBJ, who was really, really out of the race for a long time
!!!
First Take Forever 